BALRavens
6-5
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
016
ATLFalcons
4-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
6
4
20
Falcons
3
1
0
6
10
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
131
Total Plays
77
46
Yards / Play
4.8
2.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.36
Passing Yards
159
97
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
3.5
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.56
Rushing Yards
207
34
Rush Attempts
49
15
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.14
-8.32
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-34
Sack EPA
-12.17
-12.83
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
88
82
Penalty EPA
-10.07
+2.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+62.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
-42.4
Market Regression
+12.6
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-42.4
Value
Ptile
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25
EPA
EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
19
23
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
20
27
Falcons Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
3
2
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
24
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
29
24
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
19
10
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U