BALRavens
6-2
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
13 mph
23
NEPatriots
3-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
0
17
Patriots
0
13
10
0
23
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
308
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.15
Passing Yards
242
135
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.38
Rushing Yards
115
173
Rush Attempts
28
39
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
46%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.72
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.23
-2.57
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-8.19
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Patriots+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,669
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
-6.1
Final Difference
-165.0
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
17
29
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
4
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U