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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ patriots week 10, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
6-2
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
13 mph
23
NEPatriots
3-5
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
0
17
Patriots
0
13
10
0
23

Spread

NE logo
+7

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
357
308
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.15
Passing Yards
242
135
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.38
Rushing Yards
115
173
Rush Attempts
28
39
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
46%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.72
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-1.23
-2.57
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-8.19
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,669
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
-6.1
Final Difference
-165.0
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
12/22
10.7
98
01/11
2.8
71
09/13
8.0
91
09/20
-1.7
31
09/28
-1.9
30
10/04
3.9
73
10/11
-3.8
20
10/18
5.7
82
11/01
-3.1
23
11/08
3.6
71
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Value
Ptile
12/17
-9.2
5
09/08
-4.7
21
09/12
-4.5
22
09/13
4.3
75
09/20
10.2
96
09/27
-5.0
15
10/18
-3.1
24
10/25
-10.1
3
11/01
1.4
53
11/09
6.0
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Ravens logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
1
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
17
29
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Patriots logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
6

EPA

EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
4
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
24
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
18
W
W
O
01/11
-16
L
L
U
09/13
32
W
W
U
09/20
17
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
U
10/04
14
W
L
O
10/11
24
W
W
U
10/18
2
W
L
O
11/01
-4
L
L
O
11/08
14
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-3
L
L
O
01/04
-7
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
U
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
16
W
W
O
10/05
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U
10/25
-27
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
3
W
L
O