BALRavens
5-1
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
043
HOUTexans
5-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
0
7
3
13
Texans
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
176
420
Total Plays
59
76
Yards / Play
3.0
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.21
Passing Yards
121
239
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.62
+0.23
Rushing Yards
55
181
Rush Attempts
12
37
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
27
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.78
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-17
Sack EPA
-4.35
-3.65
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
56
60
Penalty EPA
-4.39
-8.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,650
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
+39.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
6
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
13
4
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
28
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
12
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
26
3
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
22
EPA
EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
14
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
14
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U