BALRavens
11-5
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
33°F
1 mph
13
TENTitans
11-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
33°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
3
20
Titans
10
0
0
3
13
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
209
Total Plays
64
49
Yards / Play
6.3
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.08
Passing Yards
165
158
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.02
Rushing Yards
236
51
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
6.7
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
54%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.13
-2.70
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-3.57
-2.12
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
60
10
Penalty EPA
-1.67
-0.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-129
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,689
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
1
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Titans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
6
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
2
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
2
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
2
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U