NOSaints
8-2
31
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
38°F
6 mph
3
DENBroncos
4-6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
38°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
17
7
7
31
Broncos
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-17
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
112
Total Plays
63
43
Yards / Play
4.6
2.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.66
Passing Yards
63
12
Comp/Att
9/16(56%)
1/9(11%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
1.3
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-1.33
Rushing Yards
229
100
Rush Attempts
44
33
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.58
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
6
Passing 1st downs
4
1
Rushing 1st downs
14
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.28
-12.65
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-15
-1
Sack EPA
-4.79
-1.14
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
--
10
Penalty EPA
--
-2.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-17.0
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model87.4%
Spread Pick
Broncos+17.0
Expected Value
+15.9%
Cover Probability
57.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-133
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,711
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+121.7
Home QB Adjustment
-96.8
Away QB Adjustment
-218.6
Market Regression
-209.9
Final Difference
-336.9
Model Spread
+14.5
Quarterbacks
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-218.6
Value
Ptile
K. Hinton
Proj. Value
-7.1
Team Elo Adj
-96.8
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
5
1
Broncos Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
26
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
25
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
27
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U