NOSaints
6-7
9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
00
TBBuccaneers
10-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
3
0
3
9
Buccaneers
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+12
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
212
302
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
3.5
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.39
Passing Yards
151
184
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.34
Rushing Yards
61
118
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
2.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
17
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
19%
32%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.93
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-3
-30
Sack EPA
-2.07
-7.91
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
41
30
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market83.4%
Model83.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+251
Home nfelo
1,691
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+13.7
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+90.6
Home QB Adjustment
+22.9
Away QB Adjustment
-67.7
Market Regression
+9.9
Final Difference
280.4
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-67.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
7
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
24
4
EPA / Rush
27
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
12
8
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U