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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 17, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
11-4
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
3 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
4-11
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
14
0
3
7
24
Buccaneers
7
6
0
18
31

Spread

TB logo
+6

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
323
457
Total Plays
58
82
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.22
Passing Yards
231
347
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
28/52(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.18
Rushing Yards
92
110
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
10
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
72%
3rd Down Conversions
6
13
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.54
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-18
Sack EPA
-3.74
-2.79
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-4.34
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-142
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.6
Market Regression
+44.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
Value
Ptile
10/22
2.0
67
10/29
2.7
72
11/05
4.2
81
11/12
2.6
70
11/19
5.0
84
11/26
0.8
58
12/03
2.0
67
12/07
1.8
66
12/17
4.1
81
12/24
-1.2
44
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Value
Ptile
10/01
6.3
89
10/05
0.9
58
10/15
-5.3
18
10/22
9.0
96
10/29
-7.3
11
11/05
-6.4
14
12/03
-2.9
33
12/10
-1.4
43
12/18
7.3
91
12/24
1.4
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23

EPA

EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
3
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
7
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
14

EPA

EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
25
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
23
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
9
W
W
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/05
20
W
W
U
11/12
37
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
L
O
11/26
-6
L
L
U
12/03
10
W
W
O
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/17
12
W
L
O
12/24
10
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
-20
L
L
U
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/26
-14
L
L
O
12/03
-6
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
U