NOSaints
11-4
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
3 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
4-11
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
14
0
3
7
24
Buccaneers
7
6
0
18
31
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
457
Total Plays
58
82
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.22
Passing Yards
231
347
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
28/52(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.18
Rushing Yards
92
110
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
10
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
72%
3rd Down Conversions
6
13
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.54
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-18
Sack EPA
-3.74
-2.79
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-4.34
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-142
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+40.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.6
Market Regression
+44.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
3
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
7
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
14
EPA
EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U