NOSaints
2-5
8
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
026
LACChargers
3-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
3
0
6
Chargers
0
9
7
10
26
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
378
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.05
Passing Yards
249
256
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.07
Rushing Yards
117
122
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-32
-23
Sack EPA
-6.83
-5.76
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
66
34
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-3.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+44.1
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+75.1
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
-86.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-86.7
Value
Ptile
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
10
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
17
25
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Chargers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
20
30
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
29
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U