NOSaints
1-3
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
67°F
6 mph
39
PHIEagles
1-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
67°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
3
7
17
Eagles
0
10
16
13
39
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
519
Total Plays
69
79
Yards / Play
5.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.13
Passing Yards
292
--
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
32/45(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.05
Rushing Yards
96
186
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
34
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-21.69
-9.90
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-43
--
Sack EPA
-13.56
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
+1.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+31.7
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
9
31
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
32
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31
EPA
EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
16
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
30
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
22
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U