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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ eagles week 5, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
1-3
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
67°F
6 mph
39
PHIEagles
1-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
67°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
3
7
17
Eagles
0
10
16
13
39

Spread

PHI logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
388
519
Total Plays
69
79
Yards / Play
5.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.13
Passing Yards
292
--
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
32/45(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.05
Rushing Yards
96
186
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
19
34
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-21.69
-9.90
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-43
--
Sack EPA
-13.56
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
+1.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+31.7
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
11/16
6.6
88
11/24
8.1
92
11/30
8.4
93
12/07
-2.8
30
12/15
8.4
92
12/21
-5.0
20
12/28
-5.4
18
09/13
1.3
60
09/20
-4.1
21
10/04
6.9
90
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
6.7
89
09/22
-4.7
20
09/26
-9.5
4
10/06
1.0
57
10/13
4.1
78
10/20
0.4
53
09/14
2.5
68
09/20
-2.9
29
09/27
-4.1
20
10/04
-0.5
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Saints logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32

EPA

EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
14
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
9
31
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Eagles logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
13
32
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31

EPA

EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
16
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
30
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
22
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-7
L
L
O
11/30
3
W
W
O
12/07
-31
L
L
O
12/15
16
W
W
U
12/21
-16
L
L
U
12/28
3
W
L
U
09/13
-12
L
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
U
09/27
-5
L
W
O
10/04
6
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
19
W
W
O
11/27
23
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
P
12/28
8
W
W
O
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
7
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
L
U