NOSaints
-
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
026
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
3
17
27
Falcons
3
13
7
3
26
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
416
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
6.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.02
Passing Yards
236
--
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.03
Rushing Yards
151
201
Rush Attempts
20
38
Yards / Rush
7.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.83
-8.72
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-6.43
--
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
99
55
Penalty EPA
-9.63
-4.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+26.8
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
-16.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.6
Net QB Adjustment
-15.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-126.6
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
24
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
14
9
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
20
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U