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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ falcons week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
-
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
26
ATLFalcons
-
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
3
17
27
Falcons
3
13
7
3
26

Spread

ATL logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
387
416
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
6.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.02
Passing Yards
236
--
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.03
Rushing Yards
151
201
Rush Attempts
20
38
Yards / Rush
7.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.83
-8.72
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-6.43
--
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
99
55
Penalty EPA
-9.63
-4.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-89
Home nfelo
1,419
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+27.4
Base HFA
+37.6
Divisional Adj
-17.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.7
Net QB Adjustment
-15.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-125.5
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
12/15
7.3
91
12/21
-9.7
5
12/29
-4.8
21
09/12
8.4
94
09/19
-9.9
4
09/26
-2.8
32
10/03
1.5
64
10/10
1.3
62
10/25
-0.9
45
10/31
-1.6
41
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Value
Ptile
12/02
1.2
55
12/06
-2.6
30
12/16
-3.6
24
12/22
-3.9
22
09/08
1.2
62
09/15
-2.7
33
09/19
-6.8
13
09/29
5.5
85
10/06
-5.2
19
10/13
-14.3
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23

EPA

EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
29
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
24
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24

EPA

EPA / Play
14
9
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
8
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
20
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
14
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-2
L
W
P
11/21
-11
L
L
O
11/25
-25
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/12
21
W
W
U
12/19
9
W
W
U
12/27
-17
L
L
U
01/02
8
W
W
U
01/09
10
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
2
W
W
O
11/14
-40
L
L
U
11/18
-25
L
L
U
11/28
7
W
W
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
8
W
W
O
12/19
-18
L
L
U
12/26
4
W
L
U
01/02
-14
L
P
U
01/09
-10
L
L
O