NOSaints
8-8
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
7-9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
17
0
6
30
Falcons
3
3
7
7
20
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
257
Total Plays
71
48
Yards / Play
5.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.17
Passing Yards
174
195
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.45
Rushing Yards
195
62
Rush Attempts
46
12
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
43%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-15.72
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-21
Sack EPA
-1.47
-4.56
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
40
46
Penalty EPA
-0.94
-5.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-66
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+13.4
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+20.7
Home QB Adjustment
-22.0
Away QB Adjustment
-42.7
Market Regression
-12.4
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-42.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
12
20
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
16
25
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U