NOSaints
2-1
33
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
7 mph
18
NYGGiants
1-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
12
7
14
33
Giants
7
0
3
8
18
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
301
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
5.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.08
Passing Yards
219
236
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
31/42(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.02
Rushing Yards
170
65
Rush Attempts
32
15
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.95
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-0.93
-7.80
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
51
67
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-7.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model66.2%
Spread Pick
Saints-3.0
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-161
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-32.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+32.6
Market Regression
+7.7
Final Difference
-116.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+32.6
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21
EPA
EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
13
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
4
13
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
11
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
30
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
29
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U