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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ giants week 4, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
2-1
33
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
7 mph
18
NYGGiants
1-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
12
7
14
33
Giants
7
0
3
8
18

Spread

NO logo
-3

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
389
301
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
5.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.08
Passing Yards
219
236
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
31/42(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.02
Rushing Yards
170
65
Rush Attempts
32
15
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.95
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-0.93
-7.80
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
51
67
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-7.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-159
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-32.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+32.6
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
-116.1
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+32.6
Value
Ptile
12/03
2.0
67
12/07
1.8
66
12/17
4.1
81
12/24
-1.2
44
12/31
1.3
62
01/07
5.2
85
01/14
2.0
67
09/09
13.4
99
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
16.4
100
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
11/12
3.3
76
11/19
-1.7
40
11/23
-11.5
1
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
9.1
96
12/24
-4.4
22
12/31
-8.4
6
09/09
-3.3
26
09/16
-0.6
42
09/23
3.5
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Saints logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21

EPA

EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
13
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
4
13
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Giants logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
11
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
30
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
29
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
10
W
W
O
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/17
12
W
L
O
12/24
10
W
W
U
12/31
-7
L
L
O
01/07
5
W
L
O
01/14
-5
L
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
L
U
09/23
6
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/23
-10
L
L
U
12/03
-7
L
W
U
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/17
-5
L
W
O
12/24
-23
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/16
-7
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
O