NOSaints
4-1
13
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
3 mph
6
JAXJaguars
2-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
0
3
7
13
Jaguars
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
226
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
5.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.25
Passing Yards
222
151
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
14/29(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.28
Rushing Yards
104
75
Rush Attempts
26
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
11
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.18
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-12
Sack EPA
-3.31
-2.21
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-1.79
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model50.7%
Spread Pick
Saints+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+82.3
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.8
Time Adj
+9.7
Net QB Adjustment
-1.0
Home QB Adjustment
-68.3
Away QB Adjustment
-67.3
Market Regression
+37.8
Final Difference
5.1
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-67.3
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-68.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
13
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Jaguars Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
4
EPA
EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
22
13
EPA / Rush
16
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
30
9
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U