NOSaints
1-8
17
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
15 mph
7
CARPanthers
5-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
0
7
17
Panthers
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
175
Total Plays
67
50
Yards / Play
5.8
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.19
Passing Yards
266
102
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.46
Rushing Yards
122
73
Rush Attempts
37
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.75
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-5.55
-3.35
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-7.60
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
T. Shough
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.0
Value
Ptile
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17
EPA
EPA / Play
30
23
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
24
23
Turnover EPA / Game
5
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
22
RZ Efficiency
32
9
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
15
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
16
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
26
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
15
RZ Efficiency
20
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U