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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 10, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
1-8
17
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
15 mph
7
CARPanthers
5-4
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
0
7
17
Panthers
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

NO logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
388
175
Total Plays
67
50
Yards / Play
5.8
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.19
Passing Yards
266
102
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.46
Rushing Yards
122
73
Rush Attempts
37
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.75
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-5.55
-3.35
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-7.60
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,334
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

T. Shough headshot

T. Shough

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.0
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.7
32
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
12/29
-5.4
14
01/05
11.1
98
09/07
-5.9
13
09/14
1.9
64
09/21
-1.8
38
09/28
-1.9
37
10/05
-4.1
23
10/12
0.9
58
10/19
-1.1
40
11/02
-6.3
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
15
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
20

EPA

EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
31
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
18
8
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19

EPA

EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
22
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
26
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
13
RZ Efficiency
24
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-8
L
W
O
09/07
-7
L
L
U
09/14
-5
L
L
O
09/21
-31
L
L
O
09/28
-12
L
W
O
10/05
12
W
W
U
10/12
-6
L
L
U
10/19
-12
L
L
U
10/26
-20
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
6
W
W
O
09/07
-16
L
L
U
09/14
-5
L
W
O
09/21
30
W
W
U
09/28
-29
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
U
10/26
-31
L
L
O
11/02
3
W
W
U