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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 11, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
4-5
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph
23
CARPanthers
3-6
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
0
0
17
20
Panthers
3
17
3
0
23

Spread

NO logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
371
223
Total Plays
72
62
Yards / Play
5.2
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
264
173
Comp/Att
35/44(80%)
14/33(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.06
Rushing Yards
107
50
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
1.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.78
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-19
Sack EPA
-7.15
-5.24
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
48
45
Penalty EPA
-5.98
+0.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-28.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Value
Ptile
01/03
5.9
87
09/11
11.6
98
09/18
0.6
54
09/26
5.5
84
10/02
-4.2
18
10/16
11.8
99
10/23
10.0
96
10/30
6.3
87
11/06
7.3
91
11/13
5.4
84
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
01/24
10.6
97
02/07
-7.0
7
09/08
0.3
52
09/18
8.6
94
09/25
-9.7
2
10/02
-1.5
37
10/16
1.2
58
10/30
0.4
52
11/06
-4.0
20
11/13
3.3
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7

EPA

EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
7
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14

EPA

EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
14
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
28
28
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
11
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/11
-1
L
L
O
09/18
-3
L
W
U
09/26
-13
L
L
O
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O
10/23
-6
L
P
U
10/30
5
W
W
U
11/06
18
W
W
O
11/13
-2
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/07
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-1
L
L
O
09/18
19
W
W
O
09/25
-12
L
L
U
10/02
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/16
-3
L
L
O
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U