NOSaints
4-5
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph
23
CARPanthers
3-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
0
0
17
20
Panthers
3
17
3
0
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
223
Total Plays
72
62
Yards / Play
5.2
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
264
173
Comp/Att
35/44(80%)
14/33(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.06
Rushing Yards
107
50
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
1.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.78
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-19
Sack EPA
-7.15
-5.24
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
48
45
Penalty EPA
-5.98
+0.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+41.1
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-28.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
7
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
14
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
28
28
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U