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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 17, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
11-4
33
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
2 mph
7
CARPanthers
5-10
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
9
10
7
33
Panthers
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

NO logo
-6

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
347
320
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.39
Passing Yards
191
246
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.66
Rushing Yards
156
74
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-22.96
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-25
Sack EPA
-4.23
-4.42
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
31
--
Penalty EPA
-4.06
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+19.8%
Cover Probability
61.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-268
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,746
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-27.1
Final Difference
-213.1
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
09/21
1.8
57
09/27
7.9
91
10/04
-1.2
36
10/12
3.1
68
10/25
8.1
92
11/01
6.9
88
11/08
7.9
91
11/15
-6.0
11
12/20
-1.6
33
12/25
-1.2
36
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
10/11
4.7
77
10/18
-5.9
12
10/25
5.4
80
10/29
-5.7
12
11/08
9.8
96
11/15
0.0
46
11/29
-0.6
42
12/13
3.8
72
12/19
1.3
52
12/27
-5.4
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18

EPA

EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
6
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
21
RZ Efficiency
5
21
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3

EPA

EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
13
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
28
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
3
W
L
O
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
35
W
W
U
11/15
14
W
W
U
11/22
15
W
W
U
11/29
28
W
W
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-3
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
O
12/25
19
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-3
L
W
O
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-23
L
L
O
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/29
-1
L
W
O
12/13
-5
L
L
O
12/19
-8
L
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U