NOSaints
11-4
33
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
2 mph
7
CARPanthers
5-10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
9
10
7
33
Panthers
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
320
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.39
Passing Yards
191
246
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.66
Rushing Yards
156
74
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-22.96
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-25
Sack EPA
-4.23
-4.42
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
31
--
Penalty EPA
-4.06
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Saints-6.0
Expected Value
+19.8%
Cover Probability
61.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-268
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,746
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-27.1
Final Difference
-213.1
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
6
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
21
RZ Efficiency
5
21
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
13
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U