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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ ravens week 7, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
4-1
24
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
54°F
15 mph
23
BALRavens
4-2
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
54°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
17
24
Ravens
0
10
7
6
23

Spread

NO logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
339
351
Total Plays
70
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.19
Passing Yards
205
274
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.18
Rushing Yards
134
77
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
43%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.18
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-10
Sack EPA
-1.25
-2.15
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
52
--
Penalty EPA
-5.68
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model51.8%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.9
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
-10.6
Net QB Adjustment
-21.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+27.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
12.4
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+27.7
Value
Ptile
12/17
4.1
81
12/24
-1.2
44
12/31
1.3
62
01/07
5.2
85
01/14
2.0
67
09/09
13.4
99
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
16.4
100
09/30
-3.2
26
10/08
10.6
97
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Value
Ptile
12/10
1.4
63
12/17
2.9
73
12/23
4.5
82
12/31
-2.2
37
09/09
6.1
85
09/13
-1.7
35
09/23
0.7
51
09/30
5.0
80
10/07
-3.9
22
10/14
1.0
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Ravens Defense
Saints logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
3

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
13
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
13
24
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
10
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Ravens Offense vs Saints Defense
Ravens logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
12
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2

EPA

EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
10
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
20
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
12
W
L
O
12/24
10
W
W
U
12/31
-7
L
L
O
01/07
5
W
L
O
01/14
-5
L
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
L
U
09/23
6
W
W
O
09/30
15
W
W
U
10/08
24
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-1
L
W
O
12/17
17
W
W
U
12/23
7
W
L
U
12/31
-4
L
L
O
09/09
44
W
W
O
09/13
-11
L
L
O
09/23
13
W
W
U
09/30
12
W
W
U
10/07
-3
L
L
U
10/14
21
W
W
U