NOSaints
4-1
24
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
54°F
15 mph
23
BALRavens
4-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
54°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
17
24
Ravens
0
10
7
6
23
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
351
Total Plays
70
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.19
Passing Yards
205
274
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.18
Rushing Yards
134
77
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
43%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.18
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-10
Sack EPA
-1.25
-2.15
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
52
--
Penalty EPA
-5.68
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model51.6%
Spread Pick
Saints+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+22.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.8
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-21.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+27.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
11.3
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+27.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
13
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
13
24
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
10
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Ravens Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
12
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
16
11
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
20
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U