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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ titans week 16, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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NO logo
NOSaints
11-3
38
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
4 mph
28
TENTitans
8-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
21
7
38
Titans
14
0
7
7
28

Spread

NO logo
-3

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
377
397
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.00
Passing Yards
275
248
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.02
Rushing Yards
102
149
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.48
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-24
-24
Sack EPA
-4.91
-6.76
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
70
56
Penalty EPA
-6.51
-5.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+29.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+29.2
Value
Ptile
01/20
-0.1
45
09/09
6.0
87
09/15
-7.2
10
10/27
8.7
94
11/10
-5.2
19
11/17
3.9
78
11/24
5.9
86
11/28
-2.1
37
12/08
16.0
100
12/16
12.1
99
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Value
Ptile
12/23
-3.5
24
12/30
-9.0
6
10/20
3.3
73
10/27
-1.7
41
11/03
2.7
70
11/10
0.1
53
11/24
10.7
98
12/01
-4.0
25
12/08
8.1
94
12/15
0.5
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Titans Defense
Saints logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
5
11
Yards / Game
9
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13

EPA

EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
14
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Titans Offense vs Saints Defense
Titans logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
4

EPA

EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
4
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
29
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
1
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/20
11
W
W
O
10/27
22
W
W
U
11/10
-17
L
L
U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
U
12/08
-2
L
L
O
12/16
27
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-16
L
L
U
10/20
3
W
P
O
10/27
4
W
W
O
11/03
-10
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
O
11/24
22
W
W
O
12/01
14
W
W
O
12/08
21
W
W
O
12/15
-3
L
L
U