NOSaints
11-3
38
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
4 mph
28
TENTitans
8-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
21
7
38
Titans
14
0
7
7
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
397
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.00
Passing Yards
275
248
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.02
Rushing Yards
102
149
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.48
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-24
-24
Sack EPA
-4.91
-6.76
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
70
56
Penalty EPA
-6.51
-5.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+29.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+29.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
11
Yards / Game
9
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Titans Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
4
EPA
EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
4
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
29
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
1
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U