SEASeahawks
3-7
15
TBD
FedExField
41°F
9 mph
17
WASCommanders
4-6
TBD
FedExField
41°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
0
0
6
13
Commanders
3
6
8
0
17
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
373
Total Plays
46
80
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.00
Passing Yards
233
219
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.18
Rushing Yards
34
154
Rush Attempts
12
44
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
27
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.23
-2.55
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-4
Sack EPA
-2.86
-0.96
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
51
38
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-4.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
-21.1
Net QB Adjustment
-37.0
Home QB Adjustment
-47.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.0
Market Regression
-32.9
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-47.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8
EPA
EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
6
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
5
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
22
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
12
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
14
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
26
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U