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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ falcons week 1, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
-
38
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
25
ATLFalcons
-
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
14
0
14
10
38
Falcons
3
9
0
13
25

Spread

SEA logo
+0

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
383
506
Total Plays
58
78
Yards / Play
6.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.01
Passing Yards
299
434
Comp/Att
31/35(89%)
37/55(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.11
Rushing Yards
84
72
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
15
23
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.26
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-16
Sack EPA
-4.76
-5.89
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
46
72
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-9.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-6.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-8.3
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
11/03
9.6
96
11/11
0.9
59
11/24
-8.4
8
12/02
1.0
60
12/08
-5.0
20
12/15
3.8
78
12/22
-9.9
4
12/29
3.4
74
01/05
4.7
83
01/12
3.6
75
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
10/13
10.0
97
10/20
-8.5
7
11/10
-1.7
41
11/17
1.5
65
11/24
-10.4
4
11/28
-5.0
20
12/08
4.5
81
12/15
2.6
69
12/22
2.5
69
12/29
-4.2
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7

EPA

EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
7
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
14
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5

EPA

EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
27
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
26
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/24
8
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
O
12/08
-16
L
L
U
12/15
6
W
P
O
12/22
-14
L
L
U
12/29
-5
L
L
P
01/05
8
W
W
U
01/12
-5
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-27
L
L
U
10/27
-7
L
W
U
11/10
17
W
W
U
11/17
26
W
W
U
11/24
-13
L
L
O
11/28
-8
L
L
U
12/08
20
W
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
12
W
W
U
12/29
6
W
W
O