SEASeahawks
-
38
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
025
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
14
0
14
10
38
Falcons
3
9
0
13
25
Spread
+0
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
506
Total Plays
58
78
Yards / Play
6.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.01
Passing Yards
299
434
Comp/Att
31/35(89%)
37/55(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.11
Rushing Yards
84
72
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
15
23
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.26
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-16
Sack EPA
-4.76
-5.89
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
46
72
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-9.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-6.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
7
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
14
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
27
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U