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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bills week 14, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
11-1
15
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
11 mph
26
BUFBills
9-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
7
0
8
15
Bills
0
3
14
3
20

Spread

BUF logo
-2

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
226
334
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
4.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.06
Passing Yards
179
230
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.10
Rushing Yards
47
104
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
10%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.87
-7.48
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-2.05
-1.32
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-3.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+28.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
+0.3
Final Difference
0.3
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
09/27
-1.1
37
10/11
6.1
84
10/18
-3.1
23
10/25
-2.1
29
11/01
0.8
50
11/08
8.0
92
11/15
6.8
87
11/22
1.8
57
12/02
3.1
67
12/07
2.9
66
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.4
Value
Ptile
09/27
6.3
86
10/04
5.4
79
10/13
-0.4
43
10/19
-0.7
41
10/25
4.1
74
11/01
-1.6
32
11/08
6.2
85
11/15
2.1
59
11/29
-1.5
34
12/07
12.2
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Steelers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20

EPA

EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
32
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
16
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bills logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
5
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
13

EPA

EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
16
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
12
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
31
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
W
P
11/01
4
W
W
O
11/08
5
W
L
U
11/15
26
W
W
O
11/22
24
W
W
U
12/02
5
W
L
U
12/07
-6
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
7
W
W
P
10/13
-26
L
L
O
10/19
-9
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
10
W
W
O
11/15
-2
L
W
O
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
O