PITSteelers
11-1
15
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
11 mph
26
BUFBills
9-3
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
7
0
8
15
Bills
0
3
14
3
20
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
226
334
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
4.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.06
Passing Yards
179
230
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.10
Rushing Yards
47
104
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
10%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.87
-7.48
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-2.05
-1.32
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-3.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+28.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
+5.3
Final Difference
5.3
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+28.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20
EPA
EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
16
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
5
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
13
EPA
EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
16
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U