PITSteelers
-
19
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
10 mph
31
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
3
6
19
Broncos
0
7
7
11
25
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
336
Total Plays
72
57
Yards / Play
3.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.14
Passing Yards
209
242
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.52
Rushing Yards
75
94
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
11
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.95
-4.86
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-36
-13
Sack EPA
-8.36
-3.39
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
52
49
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-5.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+35.5
Home QB Adjustment
+34.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
-3.3
Final Difference
16.8
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+34.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
18
3
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
2
7
EPA / Rush
26
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
4
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U