PITSteelers
12-4
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
6 mph
29
DENBroncos
8-8
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
6
0
7
10
0
23
Broncos
0
20
0
3
6
29
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
34
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
447
Total Plays
68
55
Yards / Play
5.9
8.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.24
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.87
Rushing Yards
156
131
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
6.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
44%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.01
-4.50
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-45
--
Sack EPA
-4.91
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
61
30
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-3.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model72.2%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.5
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-126
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
-165.7
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
7
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
11
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
20
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8
EPA
EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
32
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
26
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U