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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ broncos week 18, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
12-4
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
6 mph
29
DENBroncos
8-8
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
6
0
7
10
0
23
Broncos
0
20
0
3
6
29

Spread

DEN logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
34

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
400
447
Total Plays
68
55
Yards / Play
5.9
8.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.24
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.87
Rushing Yards
156
131
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
6.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
44%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.01
-4.50
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-45
--
Sack EPA
-4.91
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
61
30
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-3.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model72.2%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
-165.8
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Value
Ptile
10/16
-2.7
33
10/23
7.5
92
10/30
2.3
68
11/06
3.5
74
11/13
-4.0
25
11/27
-0.5
49
12/04
1.4
62
12/08
4.6
79
12/19
-5.1
18
01/01
-1.5
39
T. Tebow headshot

T. Tebow

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Value
Ptile
10/30
-7.2
9
11/06
6.5
88
11/13
0.8
58
11/17
2.4
69
11/27
-0.1
51
12/04
0.5
55
12/11
-3.8
26
12/18
3.8
76
12/24
-8.1
6
01/01
-10.4
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Steelers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23

EPA

EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
7
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
11
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Broncos logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
20
1
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8

EPA

EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
10
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
32
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
26
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
12
W
W
O
10/30
8
W
W
U
11/06
-3
L
L
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/27
4
W
L
U
12/04
28
W
W
U
12/08
11
W
L
U
12/19
-17
L
L
U
12/24
27
W
W
U
01/01
4
W
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
-35
L
L
O
11/06
14
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
U
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
W
O
12/11
3
W
L
U
12/18
-18
L
L
O
12/24
-26
L
L
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U