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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ browns week 17, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
12-3
22
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
7 mph
24
CLEBrowns
10-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
6
3
13
22
Browns
7
3
7
7
24

Spread

PIT logo
+10

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
394
358
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
6.0
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.13
Passing Yards
309
166
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.20
Rushing Yards
85
192
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.40
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-30
Sack EPA
-1.38
-5.16
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
19
Penalty EPA
--
-2.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.7%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+149.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
-137.7
Market Regression
+88.7
Final Difference
202.1
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-137.7
Value
Ptile
09/22
-3.5
28
09/30
4.5
81
10/06
-2.1
37
10/28
-3.4
28
11/03
-1.0
47
11/10
-2.2
37
11/14
-12.1
2
11/24
-11.8
2
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
10/18
-7.0
8
10/25
8.6
93
11/01
-5.3
14
11/15
-6.6
9
11/22
-5.7
13
11/29
-0.7
40
12/06
9.2
95
12/14
6.8
87
12/20
7.2
89
12/27
-7.3
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
32
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
32
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13

EPA

EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
10
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
4
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
3
W
W
P
11/01
4
W
W
O
11/08
5
W
L
U
11/15
26
W
W
O
11/22
24
W
W
U
12/02
5
W
L
U
12/07
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-11
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-31
L
L
U
10/25
3
W
L
O
11/01
-10
L
L
U
11/15
3
W
L
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/29
2
W
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/14
-5
L
L
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U