PITSteelers
12-3
22
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
7 mph
24
CLEBrowns
10-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
6
3
13
22
Browns
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
358
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
6.0
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.13
Passing Yards
309
166
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.20
Rushing Yards
85
192
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.40
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-30
Sack EPA
-1.38
-5.16
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
19
Penalty EPA
--
-2.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
Steelers+10.0
Expected Value
+11.7%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+74
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+149.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
-137.7
Market Regression
+89.1
Final Difference
201.8
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-137.7
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
32
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
10
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U