PITSteelers
9-7
21
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
30°F
8 mph
42
KCChiefs
12-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
30°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
1
7
7
15
Chiefs
0
21
14
7
42
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
478
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
3.9
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.19
Passing Yards
201
372
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.49
Rushing Yards
56
106
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
15
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.39
-14.53
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-34
Sack EPA
-3.55
-5.31
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
45
25
Penalty EPA
-5.82
-3.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,658
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+42.7
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+35.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-26.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-26.6
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U