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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ colts week 10, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-2
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
17
INDColts
3-6
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
6
11
20
Colts
0
10
7
0
17

Spread

IND logo
+11

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
318
267
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
230
196
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.04
Rushing Yards
88
71
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
18
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.93
-4.53
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-26
Sack EPA
-1.48
-4.73
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
70
82
Penalty EPA
-6.16
-8.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market82.5%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-222
Home nfelo
1,336
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.2
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.0
Home QB Adjustment
+28.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.1
Market Regression
-4.4
Final Difference
-259.7
Model Spread
+10.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
01/15
-2.4
30
01/22
3.9
77
09/10
0.5
55
09/17
1.7
65
09/24
-2.3
36
10/01
-1.5
42
10/08
-7.8
9
10/15
-0.0
51
10/22
3.0
75
10/29
0.2
54
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.9
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.4
59
10/02
-1.7
36
09/17
-7.1
12
09/24
4.3
81
10/01
-3.6
26
10/08
-1.2
43
10/16
-0.6
47
10/22
-7.8
8
10/29
-1.0
45
11/05
3.3
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Steelers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
25

EPA

EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
19
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Colts logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13

EPA

EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
18
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
31
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/15
2
W
W
U
01/22
-19
L
L
O
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/17
17
W
W
U
09/24
-6
L
L
U
10/01
17
W
W
U
10/08
-21
L
L
U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/22
15
W
W
O
10/29
5
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
4
W
L
U
09/10
-37
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/24
3
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
O
10/22
-27
L
L
U
10/29
-1
L
W
O
11/05
6
W
W
U