PITSteelers
6-2
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
INDColts
3-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
6
11
20
Colts
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
267
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
230
196
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.04
Rushing Yards
88
71
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.93
-4.53
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-26
Sack EPA
-1.48
-4.73
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
70
82
Penalty EPA
-6.16
-8.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model80.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-217
Home nfelo
1,338
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-43.7
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.0
Home QB Adjustment
+28.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.1
Market Regression
-1.9
Final Difference
-249.3
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+28.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
19
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
18
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U