PITSteelers
5-5
28
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
07
INDColts
5-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
14
7
0
7
28
Colts
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
310
Total Plays
50
63
Yards / Play
7.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
219
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.12
Rushing Yards
148
91
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
64%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.54
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-5.98
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
67
--
Penalty EPA
-2.39
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-194
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-161.2
Home QB Adjustment
-149.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
-86.1
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
S. Tolzien
Proj. Value
-6.4
Team Elo Adj
-149.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
3
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
4
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8
EPA
EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
18
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
3
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U