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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ colts week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
5-5
28
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
7
INDColts
5-5
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
14
7
0
7
28
Colts
0
7
0
0
7

Spread

PIT logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
369
310
Total Plays
50
63
Yards / Play
7.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
219
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.12
Rushing Yards
148
91
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
64%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.54
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-5.98
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
67
--
Penalty EPA
-2.39
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-193
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+78.2
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-161.2
Home QB Adjustment
-149.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
-86.7
Final Difference
-213.9
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Value
Ptile
01/17
1.3
60
09/12
5.0
82
09/18
0.4
53
09/25
-6.0
11
10/02
11.3
98
10/09
11.6
99
10/16
-6.9
8
11/06
-1.7
36
11/13
12.1
99
11/20
-2.4
31
S. Tolzien headshot

S. Tolzien

Proj. Value
-6.4
Team Elo Adj
-149.7
Value
Ptile
11/17
0.2
51
11/24
-4.5
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Steelers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25

EPA

EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
3
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
4
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Colts logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8

EPA

EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
18
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
3
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
22
W
W
O
09/18
8
W
W
U
09/25
-31
L
L
U
10/02
29
W
W
O
10/09
18
W
W
U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
10/23
-11
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
15
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
4
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
6
W
W
O
10/16
-3
L
P
O
10/23
8
W
W
O
10/30
-16
L
L
U
11/06
5
W
W
O
11/20
7
W
W
U