PITSteelers
1-2
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
4 mph
27
GBPackers
2-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
0
7
17
Packers
0
17
10
0
27
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
367
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.04
Passing Yards
220
236
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.10
Rushing Yards
62
131
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-4.80
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-12
Sack EPA
-5.97
-4.88
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
25
Penalty EPA
-5.83
-3.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+50.1
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
15
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
19
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
20
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
17
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
32
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
6
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U