PITSteelers
6-0
28
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
52°F
7 mph
24
BALRavens
5-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
52°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
1
0
14
7
22
Ravens
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
457
Total Plays
50
79
Yards / Play
4.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.08
Passing Yards
173
192
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
13/28(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.33
Rushing Yards
48
265
Rush Attempts
16
47
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
13
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
33%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.47
-20.43
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-3.04
-8.68
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
30
110
Penalty EPA
-3.62
-9.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+5.2
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
+0.0
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
4
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
10
RZ Efficiency
8
15
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
1
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U