HOUTexans
2-0
31
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
84°F
13 mph
25
DENBroncos
1-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
84°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
14
10
0
31
Broncos
3
6
0
14
23
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
375
Total Plays
65
76
Yards / Play
6.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.07
Passing Yards
284
316
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
26/52(50%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.02
Rushing Yards
152
59
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
50%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.61
-0.02
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-14
Sack EPA
-1.22
-4.04
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
69
75
Penalty EPA
-13.23
-7.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
19
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
11
3
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
26
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U