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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ broncos week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-0
31
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
84°F
13 mph
25
DENBroncos
1-1
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
84°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
14
10
0
31
Broncos
3
6
0
14
23

Spread

HOU logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
436
375
Total Plays
65
76
Yards / Play
6.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.07
Passing Yards
284
316
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
26/52(50%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.02
Rushing Yards
152
59
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
50%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.61
-0.02
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-14
Sack EPA
-1.22
-4.04
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
69
75
Penalty EPA
-13.23
-7.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
-5.5
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Value
Ptile
09/25
4.4
78
10/02
1.2
61
10/09
-1.5
40
10/16
-1.3
42
10/23
7.1
91
10/30
1.2
61
11/06
-1.5
40
11/13
3.6
75
09/09
1.3
59
09/16
1.6
60
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Value
Ptile
11/21
8.3
94
11/28
-0.7
44
12/05
2.4
65
12/09
7.3
91
12/19
4.9
81
12/26
1.0
55
01/02
4.2
77
01/08
3.6
73
09/09
4.2
76
09/17
-5.7
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Texans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
19
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4

EPA

EPA / Play
11
3
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
14
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Broncos logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6

EPA

EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
26
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
4
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
7
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/18
-15
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-1
L
P
O
01/07
21
W
W
O
01/15
-7
L
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
U
09/16
20
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
3
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
W
O
12/11
3
W
L
U
12/18
-18
L
L
O
12/24
-26
L
L
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
01/08
6
W
W
O
01/14
-35
L
L
O
09/09
12
W
W
O
09/17
-6
L
L
U