HOUTexans
1-7
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
72°F
19 mph
17
MIADolphins
1-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
72°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
0
3
9
Dolphins
7
10
0
0
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
262
Total Plays
67
72
Yards / Play
4.1
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.15
Passing Yards
199
215
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.07
Rushing Yards
73
47
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
4.1
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
35%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
4
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-10.66
-15.84
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-41
-29
Sack EPA
-6.27
-9.76
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
60
13
Penalty EPA
-5.24
-1.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model66.3%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-3.5
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+62.0
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+27.7
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-41.1
Market Regression
-53.8
Final Difference
117.2
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-41.1
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
23
RZ Efficiency
27
7
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U