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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ dolphins week 9, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-7
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
72°F
19 mph
17
MIADolphins
1-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
72°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
0
3
9
Dolphins
7
10
0
0
17

Spread

MIA logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
272
262
Total Plays
67
72
Yards / Play
4.1
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.15
Passing Yards
199
215
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.07
Rushing Yards
73
47
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
4.1
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
35%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
5
4
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-10.66
-15.84
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-41
-29
Sack EPA
-6.27
-9.76
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
60
13
Penalty EPA
-5.24
-1.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+62.0
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+27.7
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-41.1
Market Regression
-61.3
Final Difference
109.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-41.1
Value
Ptile
12/17
3.4
77
12/24
-5.1
19
12/31
-0.6
47
01/07
-6.3
15
09/09
-5.6
15
09/16
-0.4
43
09/20
-9.9
3
09/13
-5.0
15
09/12
5.1
84
09/19
1.6
65
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Value
Ptile
11/17
-2.7
34
11/21
-2.5
35
12/01
-3.4
28
12/08
1.1
60
12/16
-4.3
24
12/22
-2.9
32
12/29
-6.5
14
09/26
1.1
61
10/03
-1.5
42
10/10
-0.7
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Texans logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13

EPA

EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
30
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
23
RZ Efficiency
27
7
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Dolphins logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31

EPA

EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
15
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-6
L
L
O
01/03
-3
L
W
O
09/12
16
W
W
O
09/19
-10
L
W
O
09/23
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-40
L
L
U
10/10
-3
L
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/24
-26
L
L
U
10/31
-16
L
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
1
W
L
O
01/03
-30
L
L
O
09/12
1
W
W
U
09/19
-35
L
L
U
09/26
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-10
L
L
O
10/10
-28
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-2
L
L
O
10/31
-15
L
P
U