HOUTexans
10-4
30
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
44°F
5 mph
32
PHIEagles
7-7
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
44°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
16
0
14
30
Eagles
7
6
10
9
32
Spread
2
P
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
519
Total Plays
63
74
Yards / Play
5.9
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.10
Passing Yards
309
462
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
35/51(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.36
Rushing Yards
62
57
Rush Attempts
19
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
30%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.85
-15.88
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-8.79
-5.65
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
61
105
Penalty EPA
-8.76
-11.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+88.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-42.8
Home QB Adjustment
-28.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
+16.4
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-28.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6
EPA
EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
21
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
17
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
8
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
28
1
Eagles Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
1
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U