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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ eagles week 16, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
10-4
30
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
44°F
5 mph
32
PHIEagles
7-7
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
44°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
16
0
14
30
Eagles
7
6
10
9
32

Spread

HOU logo
PHI logo
2
P

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
371
519
Total Plays
63
74
Yards / Play
5.9
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.10
Passing Yards
309
462
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
35/51(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.36
Rushing Yards
62
57
Rush Attempts
19
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
30%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.85
-15.88
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-8.79
-5.65
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
61
105
Penalty EPA
-8.76
-11.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-42.8
Home QB Adjustment
-28.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
+22.5
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
10/07
7.0
89
10/14
-11.1
2
10/21
-2.7
29
10/25
10.0
96
11/04
2.1
63
11/18
-5.5
15
11/26
6.3
86
12/02
-0.6
42
12/09
0.8
52
12/15
1.9
61
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-28.6
Value
Ptile
11/06
-3.2
25
12/17
4.4
82
12/25
-6.6
13
12/31
-9.0
4
01/13
0.5
56
01/21
10.9
98
02/04
8.0
93
09/06
-8.3
8
09/16
3.2
71
12/16
1.6
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Texans logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6

EPA

EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
21
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
17
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
8
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
28
1
Eagles Offense vs Texans Defense
Eagles logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4

EPA

EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
22
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
1
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
17
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
7
W
L
U
10/21
13
W
W
U
10/25
19
W
W
O
11/04
2
W
W
U
11/18
2
W
L
O
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/02
16
W
W
U
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
P
O
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-2
L
L
U
10/11
21
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
6
W
W
U
11/11
-7
L
L
O
11/18
-41
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
L
U
12/03
15
W
W
U
12/09
-6
L
L
O
12/16
7
W
W
O