HOUTexans
2-2
19
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
021
ATLFalcons
2-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
6
3
7
19
Falcons
7
0
0
14
21
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
449
Total Plays
58
75
Yards / Play
5.4
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.27
Rushing Yards
64
96
Rush Attempts
23
36
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.44
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-5.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-39.8
Home QB Adjustment
-25.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.4
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-25.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19
EPA
EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
27
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Falcons Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
17
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
25
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
15
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
29
18
RZ Efficiency
30
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U