HOUTexans
0-2
10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
11 mph
17
JAXJaguars
1-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
0
7
10
Jaguars
7
0
3
7
17
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
291
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
4.6
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.16
Passing Yards
184
205
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.24
Rushing Yards
87
86
Rush Attempts
19
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
27%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.55
-2.76
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-20
-17
Sack EPA
-3.66
-2.47
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
66
70
Penalty EPA
-10.64
-8.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+8.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
26
4
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
31
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
11
Interceptions / Game
24
17
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U