HOUTexans
6-3
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
44°F
10 mph
41
BALRavens
7-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
44°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
7
7
Ravens
0
14
13
14
41
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
232
491
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
4.1
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.27
Passing Yards
110
--
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.74
+0.68
Rushing Yards
122
256
Rush Attempts
20
37
Yards / Rush
6.1
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
20%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.22
--
Sacks
7
--
Sack Yards
-59
--
Sack EPA
-17.33
--
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
60
65
Penalty EPA
-5.24
-8.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+20.2
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-39.1
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.0
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+39.5
Away QB Adjustment
+24.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+39.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
8
7
EPA / Pass
13
3
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
17
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
3
RZ Efficiency
9
7
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
2
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
3
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U