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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ titans week 17, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-13
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
4 mph
16
TENTitans
6-9
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
0
0
3
10
Titans
0
6
7
3
16

Spread

HOU logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
288
311
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.00
Passing Yards
223
160
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.03
Rushing Yards
65
151
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.70
-1.93
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.31
-1.41
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
55
76
Penalty EPA
-7.15
-6.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
+3.9
Final Difference
89.2
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
12/30
-5.7
14
01/05
3.5
72
01/13
5.3
83
09/09
7.6
91
09/15
0.1
50
09/22
-3.7
26
09/29
1.0
57
10/06
-8.3
7
10/13
-2.8
34
12/22
-8.4
6
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Value
Ptile
12/23
-1.3
40
12/30
1.4
60
10/06
-0.5
47
10/13
-5.6
17
11/14
3.3
72
11/24
6.9
90
12/01
-1.5
42
12/08
-4.6
21
12/15
7.0
90
12/22
-4.6
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19

EPA

EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
22
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23

EPA

EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
12
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
18
32
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
9
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/20
-1
L
W
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-5
L
L
O
11/24
-7
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
O
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/15
-22
L
L
U
12/22
-24
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-7
L
W
U
10/20
-14
L
L
O
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/10
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-3
L
L
O
11/24
4
W
W
P
12/01
-8
L
L
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-3
L
P
O
12/22
4
W
P
U