HOUTexans
2-13
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
4 mph
16
TENTitans
6-9
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
0
0
3
10
Titans
0
6
7
3
16
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
311
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.00
Passing Yards
223
160
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.03
Rushing Yards
65
151
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.70
-1.93
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.31
-1.41
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
55
76
Penalty EPA
-7.15
-6.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model62.7%
Spread Pick
Texans+6.5
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
+4.0
Final Difference
90.5
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
22
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
18
32
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
9
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U