TENTitans
2-3
0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
69°F
7 mph
16
DENBroncos
1-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
69°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
0
0
Broncos
3
3
7
3
16
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
204
270
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
3.3
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.14
Passing Yards
165
167
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.12
Rushing Yards
39
103
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
1.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
11
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
--
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
14%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.25
-4.23
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-42
-10
Sack EPA
-11.23
-1.95
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
--
51
Penalty EPA
--
-3.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+63.5
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.7
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
4
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
17
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
28
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
18
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
5
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U