TENTitans
1-2
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
041
INDColts
1-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
10
7
0
17
Colts
14
6
14
7
41
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
498
Total Plays
47
82
Yards / Play
5.6
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.16
Passing Yards
176
--
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.60
Rushing Yards
85
105
Rush Attempts
16
41
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
31
Passing 1st downs
9
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
11%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.50
-3.72
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-5.02
--
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
68
88
Penalty EPA
-6.71
-10.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+71.5
Home QB Adjustment
+25.5
Away QB Adjustment
-46.0
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Whitehurst
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-46.0
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
29
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
29
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
30
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
14
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U