TENTitans
6-5
31
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
INDColts
6-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
10
8
25
Colts
7
3
7
0
17
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
391
Total Plays
58
67
Yards / Play
5.0
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.35
Passing Yards
138
309
Comp/Att
17/22(77%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.08
Rushing Yards
154
82
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.97
-13.57
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-44
-10
Sack EPA
-13.76
-3.59
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
33
40
Penalty EPA
-3.73
-4.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model45.5%
Spread Pick
Colts+1.0
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+52.7
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
-22.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.1
Time Adj
+8.8
Net QB Adjustment
-20.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+23.7
Market Regression
-33.7
Final Difference
31.7
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
17
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
4
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
10
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U