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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ jaguars week 3, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-1
7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
9 mph
20
JAXJaguars
0-2
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
7
7
Jaguars
14
0
3
3
20

Spread

JAX logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
340
292
Total Plays
75
50
Yards / Play
4.5
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.05
Passing Yards
249
--
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.05
Rushing Yards
91
88
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.64
Sacks
9
--
Sack Yards
-55
--
Sack EPA
-14.19
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
101
30
Penalty EPA
-8.84
-5.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model61.8%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans-1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.1%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+21.3
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-108.1
Home QB Adjustment
-107.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-83.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
11/05
3.6
72
11/11
2.3
65
11/18
-9.1
5
11/26
4.2
75
12/02
1.2
55
12/06
-2.6
30
12/16
-3.6
24
12/22
-3.9
22
09/08
1.2
62
09/15
-2.7
33
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-107.5
Value
Ptile
09/15
0.8
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28

EPA

EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
4
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13

EPA

EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
17
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
30
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
31
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
24
W
W
U
11/18
-28
L
L
U
11/26
-17
L
L
O
12/02
4
W
L
O
12/06
21
W
W
O
12/16
17
W
W
U
12/22
9
W
L
O
12/30
-16
L
L
O
09/08
30
W
W
O
09/15
-2
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-3
L
P
O
11/18
-4
L
P
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
U
12/06
-21
L
L
O
12/16
-3
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
U
12/30
-17
L
L
U
09/08
-14
L
L
O
09/15
-1
L
W
U