TENTitans
1-1
7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
9 mph
20
JAXJaguars
0-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
7
7
Jaguars
14
0
3
3
20
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
292
Total Plays
75
50
Yards / Play
4.5
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.05
Passing Yards
249
--
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.05
Rushing Yards
91
88
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.64
Sacks
9
--
Sack Yards
-55
--
Sack EPA
-14.19
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
101
30
Penalty EPA
-8.84
-5.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model61.8%
Spread Pick
Titans-1.5
Expected Value
+20.1%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+21.1
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-108.1
Home QB Adjustment
-107.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-83.8
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-107.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13
EPA
EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
16
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
30
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U