TENTitans
8-4
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
69°F
2 mph
10
JAXJaguars
1-11
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
69°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
10
14
0
31
Jaguars
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
454
354
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
7.0
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.13
Passing Yards
205
--
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
31/54(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.17
Rushing Yards
249
91
Rush Attempts
40
15
Yards / Rush
6.2
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.62
-3.70
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.38
--
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
78
80
Penalty EPA
-5.56
-9.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-158
Home nfelo
1,400
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
2
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-1-1
O/U
Jaguars
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U