TENTitans
5-9
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
13 mph
16
JAXJaguars
4-10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
7
7
20
Jaguars
7
6
3
0
16
Spread
4
P
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
289
Total Plays
73
57
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.00
Passing Yards
164
226
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.06
Rushing Yards
182
63
Rush Attempts
44
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.11
-1.73
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-11
Sack EPA
-3.17
-3.18
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-5.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,248
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.7
Away QB Adjustment
+22.2
Market Regression
+25.9
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
9
23
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U