TENTitans
2-12
13
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
2 mph
21
JAXJaguars
2-12
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
3
0
3
13
Jaguars
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
288
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.07
Passing Yards
262
111
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.19
Rushing Yards
95
177
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
3.4
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-25
-13
Sack EPA
-5.95
-5.64
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
47
--
Penalty EPA
-8.76
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,291
Away nfelo
1,285
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-26.5
Market Regression
+50.6
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Whitehurst
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-26.5
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
26
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
30
22
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
26
9
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
29
Yards / Game
31
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
6
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U