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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ raiders week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-4
10
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
20
OAKRaiders
1-4
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
3
7
10
Raiders
3
7
7
3
20

Spread

OAK logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
225
226
Total Plays
59
57
Yards / Play
3.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.09
Passing Yards
160
158
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.02
Rushing Yards
65
68
Rush Attempts
15
32
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.36
-5.50
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-62
-16
Sack EPA
-16.69
-3.70
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
34
27
Penalty EPA
-7.30
-5.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,342
Home Field
+40.3
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.3
Home QB Adjustment
-10.7
Away QB Adjustment
-22.0
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Ward headshot

C. Ward

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
Value
Ptile
09/07
-12.0
1
09/14
-5.9
13
09/21
-5.0
17
09/28
-7.8
6
10/05
-6.6
9
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
12/08
3.6
73
12/15
-5.9
12
12/22
3.7
74
12/26
-2.8
30
01/05
5.7
83
09/07
0.7
57
09/15
-10.7
2
09/21
1.3
60
09/28
-3.7
25
10/05
-7.1
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Titans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
25
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18

EPA

EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
28
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
20
22
Raiders Offense vs Titans Defense
Raiders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
32
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17

EPA

EPA / Play
31
24
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
32
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
25
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-4
L
L
U
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
-8
L
L
O
12/29
-7
L
L
U
01/05
-9
L
L
O
09/07
-8
L
W
U
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
-21
L
L
O
09/28
-26
L
L
U
10/05
1
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-15
L
L
U
12/16
-6
L
W
U
12/22
5
W
W
U
12/29
15
W
W
U
01/05
-14
L
L
O
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/15
-11
L
L
U
09/21
-17
L
L
O
09/28
-1
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
U