TENTitans
7-5
42
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
5 mph
21
OAKRaiders
6-6
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
14
7
8
36
Raiders
7
14
0
0
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
552
355
Total Plays
59
60
Yards / Play
9.4
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.39
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
258
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.77
-0.09
Rushing Yards
161
97
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
73%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.09
-9.21
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
--
-3.21
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
21
20
Penalty EPA
-4.50
-1.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+56.8
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.6
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
3
6
EPA
EPA / Play
6
31
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
4
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
27
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
32
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Raiders Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
21
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
5
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U