TENTitans
-
15
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
016
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
6
3
0
6
15
Saints
3
3
10
0
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
351
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.25
Passing Yards
181
282
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.11
Rushing Yards
104
69
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
17%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.69
-9.31
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-23
Sack EPA
-3.04
-5.49
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-5.50
-5.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
6
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Saints Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
13
17
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
24
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
4
Interceptions / Game
10
32
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U