TENTitans
8-7
35
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
014
HOUTexans
10-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
7
14
35
Texans
7
0
7
0
14
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
301
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
7.8
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.40
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
192
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.74
-0.10
Rushing Yards
245
109
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.33
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
13
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.10
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
--
-6.68
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-3.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-9.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Texans+9.5
Expected Value
+22.5%
Cover Probability
64.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-109
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-161.8
Home QB Adjustment
-136.8
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
-105.2
Final Difference
-164.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
R. McCarron
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-136.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
15
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
3
24
EPA
EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
4
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
3
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
13
16
EPA / Rush
6
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
5
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
18
5
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U