TENTitans
2-0
31
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
030
MINVikings
0-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
6
3
16
6
31
Vikings
7
10
7
6
30
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
464
Total Plays
74
63
Yards / Play
6.0
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
310
238
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.11
Rushing Yards
134
226
Rush Attempts
34
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
23%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.79
-12.59
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-13
Sack EPA
-2.99
-3.45
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
+2.82
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.1
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
2
10
Vikings Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
24
Yards / Game
2
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
8
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
19
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U