MINVikings
3-5
19
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
11 mph
13
CHIBears
5-4
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
6
6
19
Bears
3
3
7
0
13
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
149
Total Plays
71
50
Yards / Play
5.4
3.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.27
Passing Yards
286
108
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.51
Rushing Yards
99
41
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.26
-4.13
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-1.74
-4.85
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
13
Yards / Game
2
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
8
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
17
28
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
20
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
12
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U