MINVikings
-
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
15 mph
27
CINBengals
-
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
0
7
7
10
0
24
Bengals
0
14
7
3
3
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
366
Total Plays
75
68
Yards / Play
5.4
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
336
217
Comp/Att
37/50(74%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.15
Rushing Yards
67
149
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.05
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-26
-44
Sack EPA
-4.84
-9.08
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
116
--
Penalty EPA
-10.95
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+52.9
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
13
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
12
14
EPA / Rush
26
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
20
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Bengals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
12
15
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
22
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
11
12
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
23
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U